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More on trends and industries 再述趋势和行业

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Last issue we mentioned about the capturing trends in fast growing industries with the example on mobile telecommunication industry. We are continuing with more on trends and industries this time and will give a real life example on selecting stocks among the auto industry through the top-down approach.

The top-down approach means to select companies by looking at the economy and industry first and then to screen out which companies worth to invest our money in. China is a healthy growing economy in the world with increasing disposal income. Such that the consumption power keeps growing and many of the family could afford a car given there are lots of choices among different market segments.

Among the market players, which companies worth to look at? We suggest you to look at car makers as information can be easily gathered in our daily life. However, in the China market, policies keep affecting the operating environment. For example, the subsidy in car purchasing in 2009 propelled the growth of domestic makers. Purchase limits in Beijing and high license bidding price for license plates in Shanghai would affect some regional auto dealers. Hence we also suggest you to pay attention to the news.

2-3 year after the large scale subsidy, the luxury vehicles entered the booming stage due to the consumption upgrades. Many of the buyers were buying their 2nd car and also with higher consumption power to a better car. In the meantime, consumers wanted something different from others and to be more functional and better off- road ability to tackle with poor road conditions and flooding caused by heavy rains. So the SUV had been the hot picks among car buyers.

Sales figures in recent years showed that Audi and BMW have been outpacing Mercedes. The related JV makers in China, namely FAW and Brilliance were the beneficiaries. However, FAW includes other brands with large profit contributions and hence the growth from FAW-Audi would become less significant. In comparison, profit contribution from BMW is so significant to Brilliance up till this moment and hence the financials were better reflected the growth of BMW in China. Moreover, the growth story of luxury cars continued by increasing localization and car makers are also lowering the entry levels.

Among SUV makers, most of the buyers know Great Wall Motor since it is the earliest domestic maker whom specialized in SUVs. Its quality is well accepted by the market and also the products are well known by value- for-the-money. Hence it enjoyed the full trend in SUV boom and outperformed the market for years.

We just simply illustrate the top-down approach above. However, you need to have the enough information and market data before making your investment decision. Again, we suggest you to invest more time to enrich the knowledge and get a well understanding on industries before investing the in the real market. Knowledge and information keeps you sail further in this wild sea.

上期我们提到捕捉高速成长的产业的趋势以及引用了移动通信产业作为例子。今期我们将继续说说更多关于趋势和行业,而且会引用汽车行业去说一下由上而下的方法选股票的方法。

由上而下选择公司的意思是,先了解不同的经济及行业,然后再筛选出哪些公司值得我们投资。中国是世界上一个正健康增长的经济体,而国民可支配收入增加。消费能力的不断增加令许多家庭能买得起一辆车,而且在不同的细分市场中也有很多的选择。

市场里有哪些公司值得观察呢?我们建议汽车制造商,因为相关信息可以很容易在日常生活中得到。不 过,在中国市场,政策一直影响经着营环境。例如,在2009年购车补贴推动了自主品牌厂商的增长。而 北京的限购和上海买昂的牌照的价格便影响一些地区性的汽车经销商。因此,我们也建议大家常常留 意新闻。

在大规模补贴后的2-3年,由于消费升级,豪华车进入爆发式增长的阶段。许多买家是购买他第二辆车,具有较高的消费能力去买更好的车。同时,消费者也希望与别众不同,同时希望车子有更多的功能 性和更好的越野能力以应付较差的路况和因暴雨造成的洪水。所以SUV也成为了热卖产品。

在近几年的销售数字显示奥迪和宝马已经超越奔驰。相关的合资车商,一汽和华晨便成了消费升级的受益者。然而,一汽包含了许多其他有较大的利润贡献的品牌,因此一汽奥迪的增长便没有那么明显的影响。相比之下,宝马对华晨的利润贡献直到显示为止还是十分显着,因此财务报表也较好地反映了宝马在中国的增长。此外,通过增加本地化和降低了入门门槛,豪华车的增长故事仍然在继续。在SUV车商中,大部分的车主都知道长城汽车,因为它是国内最早专注生产SUV的车厂。它的质量广为 市场所接受,高性价比更是人所共知。因此,公司完全捕捉了整个SUV热潮,并跑赢市场多年。

以上我们只是简述了由上而下选公司的方法。然而,你必须确自己保在作出投资决定之前有足够的市场信息和数据。同样地,我们再次建议您在真正投资之前投入更多的时间去丰富自己的知识和深入了解行业。这些知识和信息可以令您在这汹涌的大海中扬帆前进。

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