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During Results Seasons – 1 业绩期的股价波动 – 1

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By King Leung

The results seasons just ended in March. Investors can eventually take a breather to spare sometime for spending their gains from the market. If unfortunately you didn’t earn after the results, you might need to re-balance your portfolio.

The share prices fluctuate during the results period and it is not easy to capture the gain right after the result announced. Many of us concerned much about the price fluctuations, the below shows some common reasons for the price fluctuations, especially on the down side.

Behind market expectation or management guidance cannot be delivered
It is always been said, buying stock is buying the expectation of the future of the company. Hence it is easy to understand if investors expect the company to earn, say RMB 2 billions but ends up the company only makes RMB 1.7 billions in that year, or 15% less than the markets expectations, the price would drop. This is not directly related to how much it earns, or how fast the growth is, because all of this has been expected by the market.

The miss in expectations would mean the company is not worth the market value i.e. its current share price, as such value is based on the expected earning power.

Another similar example is that, the management cannot deliver the target set, or cannot carry out the business plan as scheduled. For example, if the sales target of the year of an mobile phone maker is 3 million sets, if the actual sales falls far below the target, the market will response similarly. Actually the actual sales are subjected to factors that are out of the management’s control. As to manage the market expectation and enhance transparency, some of the companies announce monthly quarterly sales figures.

On the business plan such as expansion of production capacity, lacked behind the schedule would also cause negative impact to the share prices. This is because such delay limited the supply to meet the market demand, and hence limited the growth of profit to the company.

To be continued

三月份的业绩期刚刚结束了,投资者最终可以松口气,腾点时间享受一下从市场赚得的收益。如果你不幸还没有赚到,那么可能需要重新调整你的投资组合。

业绩期间股价波动,难以在业绩发布后捕捉升浪。大家都很关心价格波动,下面会说说价格波动的一些常见原因,尤其是股价下跌的情况。

差于市场预期或未能完成管理层的指导目标人们常常说,买股票就是对上市公司未来的期望。因此,很容易理解,如果投资者预计一家公司能赚20亿元,但最终该公司只赚到17亿元,及低于市场预期15%,它的股价就会下跌。其实这和公司赚得多少或增长速度没有直接关系,因为这些或多或少都已经在市场预期中。

差于预期的表现意味着该公司不值当时的市场价值,即其股价,因为这价值是基于市场对公司预期的盈利能力。

另一个类似的例子是管理层未能完成之前定下的目标,或者没有让业务计划如期进行。例如,一家手机厂商的年度销售目标是300万套,如果实际销售远远低于目标,市场也会作出同样的反应让股价向下。其实,实际的销售会受到管理层控制范围以外的因素影响。以此,为了控制市场的期望及增强透明度,一些公司会公布月度或季度的销售数字。

业务计划,如产能扩张的进程比原定时间表慢也会对股价造成负面影响。因为限制了公司的供应以以满足市场需求,从而限制了利润的增长。

下期再续

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